Key Takeaways from Missouri Students' Postsecondary Access Report
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Missouri Sees Drops in Immediate College Enrollment and ACT and FAFSA Completion
By: Misti Jeffers, Ph.D., Ashley Donaldson Burle, & Evan Rhinesmith, Ph.D.
This week, the PRiME Center released the Missouri Students’ Postsecondary Access Report describing patterns in college-intending behaviors and postsecondary access for Missouri high school graduates, the first in a series of reports on postsecondary access and success. We compare Missouri to national trends for the graduating classes over the past decade and explore patterns of postsecondary access for Missouri’s class of 2019 overall and for high schools serving unique student populations, by locality, and by region. The report provides a state-level overview of publicly-available data (related to postsecondary access).
Our purpose with this series of reports is to amplify indicators that authentically represent the performance of high schools, with a similar goal as the recent PRiME reports on Student Academic Growth —to present better data on academic performance beyond proficiency rates. While it seems reasonable to assess elementary and middle schools based on students’ academic growth, we should consider the success of high schools by examining students’ postsecondary access. Exploring postsecondary access is critically important for education and civic leaders assessing high school performance because the primary objective of high school is to prepare students for college and careers.
This blog highlights five key findings related to college access in Missouri. We find:
1. Immediate college enrollment rates in Missouri have not only declined but have been surpassed by national enrollment rates.
Trends in Missouri College Enrollment Compared to National Average, 2011-2019
Statewide, immediate college enrollment has decreased by 7 percentage points with the largest declines being seen in two-year college enrollment.
Between 2011 and 2019, Missouri’s postsecondary enrollment rate fell from 69% to 62%, while the national rate increased from 62% to 64%.
2. As immediate postsecondary enrollment has declined in Missouri, fewer students are enrolling in 2-year institutions, and more students are entering the workforce.
Trends in Postsecondary Enrollment, 2011 - 2019
The percentage of Missouri students enrolling in 4-year institutions has remained relatively stable, with just over ⅓ of graduates opting for 4-year institutions.
Over the same period, the percentage of students entering the workforce has increased from 15% to 24%, while enrollment at 2-year institutions has fallen from 32% to 25%.
3. We observe clear differences in college enrollment for our students based on school location and student population, with the largest disparity occurring by income.
Class of 2019 Post-Graduation Activities (Two-Year, Four-Year, And Workforce Entry) Rates Vary by Income Level
Missouri students graduating from high schools serving the highest income levels have a postsecondary enrollment rate of 85%, of which 65% enroll in 4-year institutions.
Fewer than half (47%) of the lowest income students enroll in postsecondary education, while 40% of these students enter directly into the workforce.
4. Missouri’s FAFSA completion rates lag behind the national trends, as fewer than half of Missouri’s high school graduates complete the FAFSA.
FAFSA Completion Rates for the Classes of 2015 – 2019 Lag Behind Immediate College Enrollment Rates
Missouri students’ FAFSA completion rates are below national trends.
There is a clear gap between Missouri’s FAFSA completion rate (47%) and postsecondary enrollment rate (64%), signaling that a significant portion of Missouri students are entering college without the financial supports to afford college.
5. Missouri’s ACT participation rate fell substantially following the state’s decision to end its universal testing policy.
ACT Participation Rates for the Classes of 2011–2019 have been Susceptible to Policy Change
While statewide ACT participation has increased by 12 percentage points from 2011 to 2019, ACT participation was highest (92%) when state policy provided funding for ACT testing for the classes of 2016, 2017, and 2018.
The class of 2019 had over 9,000 fewer graduates who could access the ACT for college enrollment compared to the class of 2018.
These findings, and others covered in the report, point to a need for Missouri educators and civic leaders to increase attention on improving postsecondary access. While different regions and locales may have differing workforce needs that factor into student aspirations for postsecondary opportunities, the gaps identified in our report indicate that many young adults may not have equitable access to postsecondary opportunities. Given the state’s and national call for a higher proportion of college-educated adults to meet workforce needs, these findings are troubling. As college access precedes college attainment, the decline in immediate enrollment suggests that many young adults in Missouri are less likely to achieve a postsecondary degree. This has implications for their future earnings and our state’s economic development.
We encourage education leaders to explore their student-level data to identify strategies to support their students in completing college-intending behaviors and preparation for college transitions. We especially encourage strategies to support FAFSA completion, as the FAFSA determines the amount of financial aid available to students and essentially makes college more accessible to many students who would not be able to afford college otherwise.
